NANCY PELOSI, THE STRONGEST ARGUMENT YET FOR A MANDATORY RETIREMENT AGE IN POLITICS.
FROM THE TCI WIRE:
Starting in the US with the race for the president. Joe Biden has
yet to be crowned the Democratic Party's presidential nominee. They
will declare their nominee at their national convention in August.
Until then, he's the presumptive nominee -- and he's presuming a lot.
It
was stupid of him to announce months ago that he would pick a female
running mate. Whatever woman is finally picked will not be seen as the
best choice -- though she well may be -- but as the best female choice.
Currently, various advocates are insisting that Joe must pick an
African-American or Black woman. Why? He's already stated that he will
put a Black woman on the Supreme Court if elected.
There
is talk of Texas. The Democrats, some insist can carry Texas. With a
dream ticket? The reason I ask is Texas has tried dream tickets
before. Texans appear not to see it as a pie when they vote -- a pie
everyone can have a slice of -- they see it as zero sum game. So if X
advances, I do not.
This was most obvious in
2002 -- and times could well have changed -- when Texas Democrats had
what they and the press dubbed "the dream ticket." Latino Tony Sanchez
was running for governor, African-American Ron Kirk was running for the
Senate and Anglo White John Sharp was running for Lt Governor.
None
of them won their race. Despite the huge amount of press this ticket
received -- including national coverage. In the end, Sanchez got 40% of
the vote in his race, Kirk got 43% in his race and Sharp got 46% in his
race. Running as a team did not benefit the group. There are many
variables at pay -- including Kirk's failure to run TV ads in East Texas
-- he surrendered it for some reason before the race began. Right or
wrong, many political scientists concluded that the ticket failed to
sell their message as lift all boats and instead voters tended to vote
their own ethnicity and race. That may well be. It may not be. And
that was 2002. It's 18 years later, after all.
But as Joe makes one promise after another to African-American voters, he continues to struggle to reach Latino voters.
Had
he not announced that a woman would be his running mate, for example,
he could run with Julian Castro. Since announcing a female running
mate, the press has been demanding an African-American one -- Susan
Rice, Stacey Abrams, Kamala Harris (who would probably be billed Black
and not African-American due to her mother's country of origin), etc.
Loretta
Sanchez and her sister Linda Sanchez have both served in Congress, for
example. Loretta has been close to Joe for years. Is there a reason
the press is so hell bent on excluding Latinos from even consideration?
Veronica Escobar not only serves in Congress, she's been a judge.
There are many other who are qualified.
Joe
has a serious problem with Latinos that has not gone away. His campaign
does not know how to reach them. They have struggled all along with
this group. In May, Laura Barron-Lopez and Elena Schneider (POLITICO) reported:
Joe Biden won the primary in spite of,
not because of, his efforts to turn out Latinos. Two months later,
Hispanic leaders are waiting on his campaign to deliver on its promises
to do more.
In interviews, more than 20 Latino
political operatives, lawmakers, and activists said they don’t see a
game plan from Biden to marshal Hispanic voters effectively in the fall.
They said there’s little evidence the campaign is devoting the
resources or hiring the staff that task will require — all the more
crucial during a pandemic, when reaching and mobilizing Latino voters
through in-person canvassing is nearly impossible.
The campaign has refused to release
statistics on the diversity of its staff — details many of his former
opponents shared early in the primary — and a majority of a dozen recent
high-level hires were white. And Biden has neither spoken to nor been
formally endorsed by one of the highest-profile Latino politicians in
the country, Julián Castro, since he won.
Biden had a tense relationship with many Latino groups during the primary, stemming largely from his connection to the Obama administration's aggressive deportation policy. The former vice president recently acknowledged that that policy was misguided and he has moved toward progressives on immigration.
Biden had a tense relationship with many Latino groups during the primary, stemming largely from his connection to the Obama administration's aggressive deportation policy. The former vice president recently acknowledged that that policy was misguided and he has moved toward progressives on immigration.
But
the campaign's disconnect with Latinos appears to be based more on lack
of execution than on policy. Cash-strapped coming out of the primary
and hemmed in by the coronavirus, its efforts to reach Latino voters
have been lackluster, critics in the community say. The fact that
Latinos weren't central to his primary strategy has meant Biden's
campaign has more ground to make up.
Things
are only getting worse. Refusing to release basic statistics, refusing
to court their vote, Latinos may end up being up for grabs. Harry Enten (CNN) warned last month:
Joe Biden is reaching heights that Hillary Clinton never did this late in the campaign against Donald Trump. The former vice president holds a significant national lead of around 10 points and is over 50% support.
Yet
a look at recent polls suggests Trump is outperforming where he was
four years ago with a key part of the Democratic coalition: Hispanics.
This could have implications for what electoral strategy Biden may need
to take into the fall if he is to beat the President.
Clinton crushed Trump with Hispanic registered voters in the final 2016 preelection polls. She led by 61% to 23%. (I use the preelection polls for an apples-to-apples comparison for current polling.)
Biden, on the other hand, holds an
average 58% to 33% lead among Hispanic registered voters in an average
of eight live interview polls
taken over the last two months. These eight polls were ones for which I
could procure a breakdown among white, Hispanic and black voters. All
told we are looking at somewhere around 700 to 800 Hispanic voters
total.
If
we examine polls conducted over the last three months (so that we're
looking at 15 polls and well over 1,000 interviews), it's Biden 58% to
Trump's 32%.
Doing the math,
Biden's margin of about 25 points is more than 10 points lower than
Clinton's. This is more because Trump is doing better without third
party candidates than Biden taking a lower share of the vote, though
both seem to be occurring to some degree.
His campaign leaders do not understand the Latino vote. And that's only more clear in the last few days as Bianca Padro Ocasio (MIAMI HERALD) has reported:
Over 90 field organizers for the Florida Democratic Party signed a
scathing letter Friday to the party’s leadership, claiming among other
things that the campaign is “suppressing the Hispanic vote” in Central
Florida.
The seven-page internal letter, obtained by the Miami Herald, contains eight allegations from field organizers about what they say is a lack of a “fully actionable field plan” from the Biden campaign as it transitions into the Florida party to coordinate voter outreach efforts.
This letter comes 100 days out from the general election and as recent polls show enthusiasm about voting among Latinos in battleground states like Florida could be waning in light of the COVID-19 pandemic.
The seven-page internal letter, obtained by the Miami Herald, contains eight allegations from field organizers about what they say is a lack of a “fully actionable field plan” from the Biden campaign as it transitions into the Florida party to coordinate voter outreach efforts.
This letter comes 100 days out from the general election and as recent polls show enthusiasm about voting among Latinos in battleground states like Florida could be waning in light of the COVID-19 pandemic.
Among the claims: mistreatment of field organizers, relocating
trained staff members without explanation, lack of organizing resources
and taking on volunteers who are then left in limbo.
In a battleground state where elections are historically won by thin margins — and as presidential campaigns ramp up outreach efforts in Florida’s Hispanic communities — organizers claim that the Coordinated Campaign lacks key infrastructure and perpetuates a “toxic” work culture that is hurting morale among on-the-ground staffers.
In a battleground state where elections are historically won by thin margins — and as presidential campaigns ramp up outreach efforts in Florida’s Hispanic communities — organizers claim that the Coordinated Campaign lacks key infrastructure and perpetuates a “toxic” work culture that is hurting morale among on-the-ground staffers.
If
you're an undecided Latino voter watching this unfold, you're not
getting the message that we're all in this together. You are getting
the message that your needs are not going to be addressed and that while
Joe is happy to put an African-American woman on the Supreme Court and
to entertain dozens of African-American and Black women for his running
mate. Lationas can wait outside the big tent because they're not
welcome.
That's not a winning strategy.
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